Analysis of the Balance between Supply and Demand of Arable Land in China Based on Food Security

Arable land is the natural resource of food production, plays a key role in safe guarding people’s livelihood, maintaining social stability, and ecological balance. In context great challenge rapid loss arable growth demand due to socio-economic development, scientific forecasting supply, can clarify conservation pressure regional land, provide reference for formulating effective policies, ensuring security sustainable development. Therefore, with help system dynamics model Gray-Markov model, this study predicts analyzes balance supply China, reached following conclusions. (1) During projection period, continuous development living standards agricultural technology, both per capita production show an upward trend. However, combined effects changes diet structure grain yields on are smaller than those brought about by population changes. trend similar that change, China reaches peak 112.78 million hm2 2026. (2) The amount possession always greater replenishment, area shows decreasing trend, 127.16 2035. (3) China’s holdings all able meet but existing studies, it insufficient crop rotation fallow between 2023 2030, which not conducive future, protection policies should be comprehensively improved strictly implemented ensure national achieve use land.